When the draw was made for the qualifiers for World Cup 2026 on 13th December 2024, Ireland was drawn in Group F alongside Portugal, Hungary, and Armenia. Group winners qualify for the World Cup. Sixteen teams (twelve group runners-up and four best Nations League group winners based on the Nations League overall ranking that finished outside the top two of their qualifying group) will be drawn into four paths, playing two rounds of single-match play-offs (semi-finals with the seeded teams to host, followed by finals, with the home teams to be drawn). The four path winners will qualify for the World Cup. So, not so straightforward, or easy.
When the draw was made, there was an assumption that Nations League Champions Portugal would prevail as group winners, leaving Ireland to fight it out for second place and a play off berth. A further assumption was that this would likely be a battle with Hungary for that second spot. Captained by Liverpool’s Dominic Szoboszlai, Hungary themselves will be a difficult opponent, and as a nation they have had a resurgence this past decade, qualifying for three consecutive European Championships and promotion to Nations League A in 2022-2023 (although they have been relegated again to Nations League B for the 2026-2027 season). However, Hungary have only won two games since Euro 2024, although they have faced the likes of Turkey, Germany, and Netherlands during that run. Armenia meanwhile have also won just twice during that period – two wins against Latvia. They have lost to the Faroe Islands and have shipped 16 goals in their last four games. They were also crushed 9-1 by Georgia in the UEFA Nations League promotion/relegation play-offs.
Ireland have played recent friendlies in June 2024 against both Hungary and Portugal, under interim boss John O’Shea. Winning 2-1 against the Hungarians and losing 3-0 in Portugal. In recent memory Ireland have also given Portugal a couple of tough games, almost pulling off a famous victory over Portugal in an away World Cup qualifier in September 2021 (two late goals from Cristiano Ronaldo broke Irish hearts in a 2-1 defeat) and then they secured a highly creditable 0-0 draw against the Portuguese at Lansdowne Road in the return fixture.
For the fixture schedule, Ireland will start their bid to qualify for the finals with a home game against Marco Rossi’s Hungary on Saturday 6th September. That will be followed up with a game against Armenia in Yerevan on Tuesday 9th September. October sees a trip to Portugal on Saturday 11th October, before returning to Dublin to face Armenia on Tuesday 14th October. The qualifying group concludes in November with a home game against Portugal on Thursday 13th November, before meeting Hungary away on Sunday 16th November.
The mood music from the Irish camp has been positive about our qualification hopes. Assistant Head Coach John O’Shea remarked after the draw was made, “To have World Cup qualifiers next year, it gets the juices going as a player. But also, for staff and fans in particular too so you’re building all that package in together and hopefully there’ll be a lot of excitement to come too.”
Similarly, Heimir Hallgrimsson has cut a bullish figure, remarking that the recent friendlies against Senegal and Luxembourg were perfect preparation for when we play at the World Cup next summer. The Icelander even expressed a belief that Ireland can directly qualify for the World Cup despite the formidable Portugal standing in their way. “I don’t think that game will matter when it comes to October, when we face them. Obviously, the campaign is tough. If you end up second, you need to go through two play-off matches to qualify. So, everybody’s eyes at the beginning of the tournament are on first spot. And I think looking at the group, there will be lost points, even for Portugal. So, we just need to take care of ourselves and let’s see where that brings us.”
With the double headers in October and November featuring games against Portugal, a strong start is essential. Hallgrimsson recognises this himself, “Four points would be good, six would be better. If we get a draw against Hungary and win in Armenia. Probably it would be worse if it was the opposite. Four points would be OK, a good start. Six is what we aim for.”
Since he took charge, Hallgrimsson has impressed with his calm demeanour and effective communication skills. After his initial hands-off approach was questioned, he has taken control and most definitely put his imprint on the side. The Nations League Play Off victories against Bulgaria brought an air of positivity to proceedings and had fans hoping that a qualification tilt would be possible.
Hallgrimsson though is also a realist. After the chastening 5-0 defeat to England at Wembley in November in the Nations League, he rued Ireland’s collapse and stressed the importance of organisation and cutting out errors which can be so costly at this level. He said: “We have been working a lot, especially on the defensive organisation. The chances we conceded, the goals we avoided, the statistics were good until that second half (against England). So, I think we’ve taken good steps. But if we want to qualify, we need points against Denmark or Portugal and Hungary. It’s always easier to win points without conceding goals ourselves so we need to be spot on when it comes to those games in regards to the organisation — that is always the first priority.”
In this condensed qualification campaign (of which groups will be wrapped up in three months) there will of course be twists and turns. No international match is easy and even though games against Armenia may look easily winnable on paper, encounters like these can be tricky, considering quick turnaround times between fixtures and long-haul journeys for the players.
Ireland has the materials to qualify, but a positive start is essential. A win in Dublin against Hungary, followed up by a victory in Yerevan is not only achievable, but arguably essential. Six points from two games would give Ireland enormous confidence and self-belief in our quest to qualify for our first World Cup in 24 years. It’s going to be an interesting journey.