It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks for Ireland’s upcoming opponents in the inaugural UEFA Nations League promotion/relegation play-off tie. At the beginning of the month, subject to the acceptance of the Bulgarian Football Union, manager Ilian Iliev announced he will be leaving his post with immediate effect. This followed mounting pressure from various stakeholders of the Bulgarian Football League, including the league’s president, essentially accusing him of not being fully committed to the national team due to his dual role in charge of Bulgarian outfit Cherno More. Iliev’s resignation was declined by the BFU, meaning he will be the man to lead the team out in Plovdiv and Dublin. The writer of this article absolutely supports the BFU’s decision, as it means I didn’t watch 75% of Bulgaria’s 2024 Nations League campaign in vain.
Internal conflicts aside, it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from them over the two legs.
FORMATION:
Bulgaria lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in each of their 2024 Nations League fixtures.
KEY PLAYERS:
Kiril Despodov:
Captains the team and is an obvious stand-out. The PAOK man was just voted Bulgaria’s player of the year for the fourth year running, bringing his overall tally of awards up to five. He is excellent technically, taking all of their set pieces and proving to be a real threat from direct free-kicks. While Bulgaria’s attacking patterns often allow him to drift inside and create centrally, he is also a threat out wide thanks to his clever runs and pace.
Illia Gruev:
Gruev was easily my favourite Bulgarian player to watch, and it seems his Leeds United teammates rate him highly too, being described as a ‘maestro’ after he won second place in the awards behind Despodov. Unfortunately for Bulgaria he only played in the first two games of their campaign having undergone knee surgery in October, returning in mid-January. Predominantly operating on the left side of a double-pivot, Gruev has a press-resistant profile, with the ability to pick the ball up from deep and progress play. His heatmap below shows a bias to the left side both deep and high in the middle third as he likes to combine with the full back and winger on that side to build attacks. Having been eased back into action at Leeds, I would expect him to start against Ireland.
Fabian Nurnberger and Viktor Popov:
Playing left-back and right-back respectively, these two are crucial to Bulgaria’s system, particularly going forward. As we’ll look at in more depth below, the vast majority of the team’s attacks come down the flanks, and as their heatmaps show, they are both expected to provide a large share of wide support in the final third.
IN-POSSESSION PRINCIPLES:
Wide attacks:
According to WhoScored.com, 76% of Bulgaria’s attacks come from the wide channels, spread evenly at 38% on each side. As we’ve seen through the heatmaps of the full backs, they are required to hold the width in attack, allowing the wide midfielders to invert and combine with the likes of Gruev or an attacking midfielder to create overloads and attack around the outside.
Gruev’s importance and midfield fluidity:
In their first game away to Belarus, Bulgaria arguably looked their most dangerous and technically secure in midfield when Gruev and attacking midfielder Filip Krastev played together. As mentioned earlier, Gruev’s campaign ended after the second game against Northern Ireland while Krastev was sent off for a second yellow in the 74th minute against Belarus, so they didn’t play together for the rest of the year. They had licence to roam and switch positions, with Gruev sometimes occupying the last line while Krastev looked to dictate play from deep. They also showed flashes of creativity when they were able to combine in Bulgaria’s favoured wide channels, as shown in the first part of the video above.
Kolev’s role:
While he’s far from a prolific striker, Aleksandar Kolev is definitely a key cog in Bulgaria’s attacking patterns. As his heatmap shows, he tends to drop deeper to aid attacks and combine with the wide midfielders. At times he’ll also look to play on the last defender’s shoulder and get in behind, however moments like this were often a source of frustration for him and his teammates as they expected to play it to him with his back to goal, which caused some attacks to break down due to misunderstandings. If we zoom in on his heatmap inside the box, it shows he tends to get the ball in central, high-value areas, and he did show signs of intelligent movement at times too to get shots off.
OUT OF POSSESSION PRINCIPLES:
Defensive shape:
Bulgaria will often sit in a disciplined 4-4-2 mid-block. Barring a disastrous night in Belfast against Northern Ireland in October, they conceded just 5 goals in their 9 other games in 2024, suggesting they are fairly well-drilled defensively and that game in Windsor park was merely a statistical outlier.
In the reverse fixture against the North, the Bulgarians provided a glimpse of why the Republic of Ireland will need to play their cards right in this tie and ensure they don’t fall behind, particularly in Plovdiv. Star man Despodov put his team ahead in the 40th minute and from that point on, Bulgaria looked to completely kill the game. They went from 59% possession and 8 shots in the first half to 36% possession and just 1 shot in the second. In that drab second period they also had 0 touches in the opposition box, compared to 15 in the first 45 minutes. On the flip side, Michael O’Neill’s men managed just 3 shots and 0.16 expected goals despite having 64% of the ball. There was a similar scenario after Andrian Kraev put them 1-0 up in the 23rd minute away to Luxembourg, as they were happy to have just 22% of possession in the second half to come away with a 1-0 win.
With Ireland’s well-documented lack of cutting-edge, it would be worrying to concede first and rely on breaking them down.
Issues with the high press:
I couldn’t help but notice a complete lack of structure and tactical awareness when Bulgaria were in high-pressing situations. This was ruthlessly exposed in the 5-0 drubbing to Northern Ireland and directly lead to two goals, but it was also evident at times throughout the campaign and it felt like a better opponent would have punished them. Against Belarus, one moment in particular stood out.
The Belarus goalkeeper goes short to the pivot from a deep free kick and Kolev presses from in to out, forcing the ball to the right centre back.
The right centre back receives the ball and Kolev returns centrally, failing to recognise the situation that was unfolding.
A 4 v 2 overload has now developed. The pivot can receive the ball and turn, playing it to the Belarusian full back and breaking the press with ease.
If they can be baited into pressing high, there may be an opportunity to expose this apparent weakness in their out of possession play.
Left side issue:
Another recurring issue that seemed to be targeted as the campaign went on was the left side of the defence failing to deal with balls over the top, particularly when they were playing a higher line. The culprits here were Nurnberger and Alex Petkov, and was an interesting chink in their armour which went unpunished on each occasion below. Whether it’s down to lack of communication, coaching, or both, it strengthens the theory that this side can be got at when they are defending in higher regions of the pitch.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Forgetting the latest dramas in the Bulgarian camp, this is a side that Irish fans should feel confident of beating. While they do have their strengths as well as some individuals that can cause problems (like 95% of international teams), they also have weaknesses and limited quality in the side. With the first leg being in Plovdiv, it is likely that Bulgaria may open up and go for it on Thursday night and try to take something into Sunday’s showdown in Dublin. If Ireland can pick their moments and take a win away on Thursday, I’d have little doubt that they could finish the job off on Sunday night.
Prediction over two legs: Ireland 2 – Bulgaria 0.
All footage taken from Footballia.eu. All heatmaps taken from SofaScore.