Who Leads the Line for Ireland? Ferguson’s Place Under Threat with Parrott and Idah shining

In the autumn of 2023, when a teenage Evan Ferguson was scoring Premier League hat-tricks and providing Ireland fans with a glimmer of hope in the darkness of late era Stephen Kenny-ball, no one would have expected that the Meath man’s place in the Ireland team would be under threat 18 months on. The expectation was that he would be leading the line for Manchester United or Arsenal and bringing his Ireland goalscoring account into double figures. But a lot has changed in the last 18 months.

In that period, Ferguson’s young career has seen serious injury, prolonged spells sitting on the bench and a loan move to West Ham, where all three of his appearances so far have come from the bench. It has been an immensely frustrating time for the most exciting Irish footballer in a generation. Neither Roberto de Zerbi nor Fabian Hürzeler deemed Ferguson worthy of consistent game time at Brighton.

De Zerbi seemed a poor fit for a precocious young striker like the Bettystown man. Charlie Mulgrew, the ex-Celtic player who had the opportunity to take in a Brighton training session last year, detailed on a podcast appearance how Ferguson was basically being used as a training cone on the English south coast.

It was hoped that Hurzeler would get more out of Ferguson but he preferred Danny Welbeck, Joao Pedro and Georginio Rutter up front as Ferguson struggled for full fitness and sharpness. He’s notched one goal in 18 appearances across all competitions at club level this season. However, he has only played 460 minutes – the equivalent of 5 games.

His record at international level is slightly better, with a fine winning goal at the Aviva against Finland to show for his efforts across 306 minutes (6 appearances) in the UEFA Nations League since Heimir Halgrimsson came in. Nevertheless, 2 goals in 24 appearances this season overall is well short of what was expected of him.

Adam Idah and Troy Parrott, in comparison, are having much more impressive seasons. Idah’s career has been rejuvenated since his move to Glasgow 14 months ago, becoming a rare Irish success story at Parkhead. His form around this time last year was genuinely stunning, and while he has been less impressive this term, he has still made an impact in Brendan Rodger’s team.

He’s notched 13 goals and added an assist across 42 appearances, with his 1818 minutes being the equivalent of 20 full games. He only played 90 minutes across three appearances for Ireland before Christmas because of injury and Halgrimsson’s preference for Ferguson.

He is of a reasonably similar profile to Ferguson and while he might be not be as gifted as the latter, he has made much more impact at club level over the last two seasons. He has also shown he can make an impact in front of goal at international level, scoring three goals in the 2023-2024 season for the boys in green, against the Netherlands, New Zealand and Hungary.

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Yet it is Parrott who surely has the strongest case to start against Ilia Gruev and co in two weeks. Written off as a failure by fans in Ireland and England alike less than two years ago, the Dubliner has transformed his career in spectacular fashion since moving to the Netherlands.

His 17 goals for Excelsior Rotterdam had some calling for him to get more Ireland minutes last season but the noise around him has gone up a few decimals since his €8 million permanent move from Tottenham to AZ Alkmaar last July. The basic stats are impressive but only tell half the story. 17 goals and three assists across 39 appearances (2,993 minutes which is the equivalent of 32.5 matches) in the Eredivisise, Dutch Cup and Europa League makes for impressive reading.

It should be noted that five of his goals have been from the penalty spot, however. This fbref graph based on his stats in the Europa League offers interesting insight into his all round game.

It shows that (albeit based on a relatively small sample size) against high level opposition he is far from a prolific goal scorer – 0.24 non-penalty goals per 90 is well below average for a centre-forward in the elite competitions. However, the graph shows that his all-round game is excellent.

He is in the top 1% of strikers for expected assists, the top 6% for progressive passes and the top 10% for tackles. Anyone who saw his performances against Galatasaray and previous club Spurs can attest to this. Parrott is not just a quality striker, he’s a quality footballer.

In an Ireland team that lacks technical ability, that is particularly important. There is an argument for Parrott’s skillset being used in a deeper role but that has had mixed results in the past and his success in Alkmaar has come as a nine. If he is ever going to get an opportunity for Ireland in that position, it’s now.

The argument against Idah and Parrott in that they aren’t doing it against good opposition. But it’s not like all of their goals, assists and positive contributions have come against St. Johnstone and RKC Waalwijk. Idah scored twice against Aston Villa in January and was involved in Celtic’s goals against Bayern Munich, whilst Parrott has scored against Feyenoord, Ajax, Roma and Galatasaray this season.

While international football is it’s own unique beast, international managers must reward improvement at club level. Parrott and Idah were in the Ireland squad when they were achieving little to nothing at club level. Now that they are making a real impact, one of them should be rewarded with the opportunity to be the focal point of Ireland’s attack. As much as Idah has improved, Parrott’s scintillating form should be too good to look past.

Stats courtesy of fbref and transfermarkt

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